2008 - the crisis in Russia and the world, its consequences for the global economy. World financial crisis 2008: causes and prerequisites

Anonim

In 2008, the crisis swept the whole world. The beginning of the global financial problems began with the collapse of the stock market. From January 21 to January 22, chaos reigned on all the exchanges. It was not only the stock prices that collapsed, but also the securities of companies that were doing well. Even large corporations such as Russian Gazprom suffered losses. Soon after the fall of shares on the world oil market, oil began to fall in price. A period of instability began in the stock markets, which left a significant imprint on the commodity markets. Despite the attempts of economists to justify the situation (they publicly stated about the adjustment of stock prices), on January 28 the whole world had the opportunity to observe another stock market crash.

How did the crisis begin?

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In 2008, the crisis did not begin on January 21 with the fall in stocks, but on January 15. Banking group Citigroup recorded a reduction in profits, which was the main impetus to reduce the value of shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The following events took place:

  • The Dow Jones fell 2.2%.

  • Standard & Poor's - by 2.51%.

  • Nasdaq Composite - by 2.45%.

Only after 6 days, the effects of price changes manifested themselves on the stock exchange and left their imprint on the situation around the world. Most of the players in the foreign exchange market finally saw that in reality many companies do not feel very well. For high rates of capitalization, for the high cost of shares hiding chronic losses. Many economic experts predicted a crisis in 2008 back in 2007. It has been suggested that in Russia after two years, difficult times will come due to the fact that the resources of the domestic market will not be exhausted. For the global economy, the recession was predicted at an earlier time.

Heralds of world problems in 2008 and the development of the situation

Although the world crisis of 2008 began with the fall of the stock exchanges, there were many prerequisites for its appearance. The fall in stocks was only a warning signal of a dynamically changing situation. In the world, commodity overproduction and significant accumulation of capital were recorded. Exchange instability indicated that there were certain problems with the sale of goods. The next damaged link in the global economy was the sphere of production. Global changes in the economy, which brought the 2008 crisis, significantly affected the lives of ordinary people.

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For the global economy was characterized by the situation when the opportunities and prospects of the markets were completely exhausted. Despite the opportunity to expand production and availability of free funds, it became very difficult to earn income. Already in 2007, it was possible to observe the fall in the income of the working class in countries such as the USA and the United Kingdom. The narrowing of the markets has hardly been restrained by the increase in both consumer and mortgage lending. The situation escalated when it became obvious that the population was not able to pay even interest on loans.

The first global crisis in the history of mankind

In the period from 2008 to 2009, most of the countries of the world faced a financial and economic crisis, which led to the phenomenon of receiving the status of “global”. The crisis of 2008 that was remembered for a long time covered not only capitalist countries, but also the economy of post-socialist states. The last regression in the world before 2008 of such a large scale was in 1929-1933. At that time, things went so badly that villages around cardboard cities grew out of large American cities, since the majority of the population, because of unemployment, could not secure a living wage. The specifics of the development of each individual country in the world determined the consequences of the phenomenon for each nation.

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The dense coexistence of the economies of the countries of the world, the dependence of the majority of countries on the dollar, and the global role of the US in the global market as a consumer led to the fact that America’s internal problems "reprinted" on the lives of almost all countries. Outside the influence of the "economic giant" there were only China and Japan. The crisis was not like a bolt from the blue. The situation flourished gradually and systematically. Strong uptrends showed a possible economic collapse. In addition, the United States during 2007 managed to lower the interest rate by 4.75%. This is uncharacteristic for a period of stability, a phenomenon that has not gone unnoticed by fundamentalist speculators. It is worth saying that the fact that there was no reaction in the foreign exchange market to a rate cut in America as such was about future difficulties. What happened in the run-up to the crisis is just one of the standard initial stages of the phenomenon. The states already have problems during this period, but they are hiding and do not explicitly make themselves known. As soon as the screen was moved and the world saw the actual state of affairs, panic began. There was nothing to hide, which led to the collapse of the economy in most states.

The financial crisis of 2008 in different countries

The main characteristics of the crisis and its consequences are of a general nature for each state of the world. At the same time, there are also important differences that are peculiar to each country. For example, in 9 out of 25 countries of the world a sharp increase in GDP was recorded. In China, the figure rose by 8.7%, and in India - by 1.7%. If we consider the post-Soviet countries, then GDP remained at the same level in Azerbaijan and Belarus, in Kazakhstan and in Kyrgyzstan. The World Bank focused on the fact that the crisis of 2008 led to a general decline in GDP in 2009 by 2.2% worldwide. For developed countries, this figure was 3.3%. In developing and emerging market countries, it was not a decline that was noticed, but only 1.2% growth, albeit not a big one.

The depth of the fall in GDP differed significantly from one country to another. The biggest blow fell on Ukraine (the fall was 15.2%) and Russia (7.9%). This has led to a decrease in the overall competitiveness of countries in the global market. Ukraine and Russia, which were hoping for the self-regulating forces of the market, suffered the harder consequences of a socio-economic nature. States that chose to retain either commanding or strong positions in the economy, suffered “economic chaos” easily. These are China and India, Brazil and Belarus, Poland. The crisis of 2008, though left a definite imprint on each of the countries of the world, but everywhere it had its own strength and individual structure.

The global economic crisis in Russia: the beginning

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The reasons for the 2008 crisis for Russia were not only external, but also internal. To beat the ground from under the feet of a great state was to reduce the cost of oil and metals. It was not only these industries that were hit. The situation was significantly aggravated by the low liquidity of the country's money supply. The problem began in 2007, in the period from September to October. This was a clear signal that the money in the banks of Russia was almost out. The demand among citizens for loans has exceeded the existing supply by several times. The crisis of 2008 in Russia was marked by the fact that domestic financial institutions began to lend money abroad at a percentage. At the same time, the Central Bank of Russia offered a rate of 10% on refinancing. Already by August 1, 2008, the size of foreign debt in the country amounted to $ 527 billion. With the onset of the global crisis, in the autumn of the same year, Western countries stopped financing Russia due to the situation.

Russia's main problem is money liquidity

For Russia, it was the liquidity of the money supply that formed the crisis of 2008. The reasons of a general nature, such as falling stocks, were secondary. Despite the annual growth of the ruble money supply over 10 years by 35-60%, the currency has not strengthened. When the world crisis of 2008 was just about to manifest itself, the leading Western countries formed a certain state of affairs. So, 100 cu The GDP of each state corresponded to at least $ 250-300. bank assets. In other words, the total assets of banks were 2.5–3 times higher than the total GDP of the states. The ratio of 3 to 1 makes the financial structure of each of the states stable in relation not only to external changes, but also to internal ones. In Russia, when the financial crisis of 2008 began, per 100 rubles of GDP accounted for no more than 70-80 rubles of assets. This is about 20-30% less than the money supply of GDP. This led to the loss of liquidity of almost the entire banking system in the state, banks stopped lending. A small failure in the functioning of the world economy adversely affected the life of the country as a whole. The situation in the country brought on by the 2008 crisis is fraught with repetition until the problem of the liquidity of the national currency is completely eradicated.

Central Bank of Russia itself caused the crisis

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The 2008 crisis in Russia took place largely due to internal factors. External influence only strengthened the regress in the country. At the moment when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to raise the interest rate, the level of production dropped sharply. The number of defaults in the real sector even before the 2008 crisis manifested itself varied within 2%. At the end of 2008, the Central Bank increased the refinancing rate to 13%. The plans were to balance supply and demand. In fact, this led to a rise in the cost of loans for small, medium and private businesses (18-24%). Loans have become very heavy. The number of defaults increased 3 times due to the inability of citizens to repay debts to banks. By the autumn of 2009, the percentage of defaults in the country had risen to 10. The result of the decision on interest rates was a sharp decline in production volumes and the shutdown of a large number of enterprises throughout the state. The causes of the crisis of 2008, which the country itself has created to a greater degree, have led to the collapse of the economy of a developing state with high consumer demand and high economic indicators. It would have been possible to avoid the consequences of global chaos by pouring funds into reliable banks by the financial block of the state. The collapse of the stock market did not have such a significant impact on the state, since the economy of companies has practically no relation to trading on the stock market, and 70% of shares belong to foreign investors.

Causes of the global global crisis

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In 2008–2009, the crisis engulfed virtually all branches of state activity, especially oil, and those that were directly related to industrial resources. The trend that has been growing successfully since 2000 has been reduced to nothing. Prices for agro-industrial products and "black gold" grew. The cost of one barrel of oil peaked in July and stood at $ 147. More than this cost the price of fuel has never risen. With rising oil prices, gold prices rose, which has already shaped investors' suspicions of the unfavorable outcome of the situation.

For 3 months, the cost of oil fell to $ 61. From October to November, there was another price decrease of $ 10. The fall in fuel costs was the root cause of the decline in indices and consumption levels. In the same period, a mortgage crisis began in the United States. Banks gave people money to buy housing in the amount of 130% of their value. As a result of the decline in the standard of living, the borrowers failed to pay the debts, and the collateral did not cover the debt. Deposits of US citizens just melted on the eyes. The aftermath of the 2008 crisis left an imprint on most Americans.

What was the last "drop"?

In addition to the events described above, some phenomena that took place in the world during the pre-crisis time left their imprint on the situation. For example, we can recall the inappropriate use of funds by a regular trader of one of the largest French banks, Societe Generale. Jerome Carviel not only systematically ruined the company, he clearly showed the public all the shortcomings in the work of the largest financial organization. The situation has clearly demonstrated how freely regular staff traders can manage the funds of the firms that hired them. This stimulated the 2008 crisis. The reasons for the formation of the situation, many associate with the financial pyramid of Bernard Madoff, which strengthened the negative trend of the global stock index.

Agflation aggravated the global financial crisis of 2008. This is a sharp rise in prices for agro-industrial products. The FAO price index has been growing steadily amid a global stock market decline. The maximum peak index reached in 2011. Companies all over the world, trying to somehow improve their own state of affairs, began to agree to very risky deals, which ultimately brought great losses. It can be said about reducing the volume of purchases of automotive products. Demand decreased by 16%. In America, the figure was 26%, which led to a decrease in demand for the products of metallurgy and other related industries.

The last step on the road to chaos was the growth rate LIBOR in America. The event took place in connection with the depreciation of the dollar in the period from 2002 to 2008. The problem is that in the prime of the economy and at its development at an incredibly fast pace, it would not be superfluous to think about an alternative to the dollar.

Implications of the 2008 crisis for the global economy

The global economy is subject to both ups and downs from time to time. There are events in history that change the direction of economic life. The financial crisis of 2008 completely turned the state of the world economy. If you look at the situation globally, the world economy after the chaos has become more even. Wages in industrialized countries that were lowered during the depression period have almost completely recovered. This allowed in due time to rehabilitate the development of global industry in capitalist states. Significant recovery has been seen in countries that are just starting to develop. For them, the global depression has become a unique opportunity to realize their potential in the global market. Not directly dependent on the stock exchanges and the dollar, underdeveloped states did not have to deal with the situation. They directed their strength to their own development and prosperity.

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The centers of accumulation remained in the USA, the EU and in the UK, which led to an industrial upswing. The technological component began to improve, which continues today. Many countries have revised their policies, which allowed them to build a reliable economy for the future. For some states, the crisis had very impressive positive effects. For example, countries that have cut off external financing in connection with the situation in the world have been able to rehabilitate domestic economic activity. Left without material supplies from the outside, the government had to inject budget balances into domestic industries, without which it is impossible to ensure the minimum comfort of living standards of citizens. Thus, the directions of the economy, which previously remained outside the zone of influence, have changed today.

How the situation will develop in 2015 remains a mystery. Some economists are convinced that the current situation in the world is a certain echo of the crisis of 2008, one of the colorful but full-blown effects of the global depression. The situation is reminiscent of the crisis of 2008. The reasons converge:

  • drop in the cost of a barrel of oil;
  • overproduction;
  • increasing unemployment in the world;
  • a catastrophic decline in the liquidity of the ruble;
  • uncommon fall with gaps of dow jones indexes and s & p.

According to analysts, the situation will continue to worsen.

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