- The specifics of assessing the level of unemployment in Russia
- Rosstat data
- Unemployment rate in Russia for January - April 2015
- Search query statistics
- Monitoring in the field of employment
- How was the situation in 2014?
- Unemployment during the crisis of 2008–2009 and 2014–2015
- What are the differences between the situation of 2008 and 2014
- What will happen in 2015?
- Official government statements
The concept of unemployment, in accordance with the ILO methodology, which Rosstat uses in a modified form, is the ratio of the economically active population of a country aged 15 to 72 years to people who at the time of the study were seeking to find work or were interested in finding employment.
The specifics of assessing the level of unemployment in Russia
The unemployment rate in Russia is determined by taking into account two parameters:
- The number of calls to the employment service.
- Analysis of the results of population surveys on problems that are carried out within 0.6% of the total population of the country.
Each quarter in Russia carries out a survey of about 65 thousand people aged 15 to 72 years. For the year, the number of persons surveyed reaches about 260 thousand people.
In accordance with sample surveys of the Rosstat population, in April 2015, the unemployment rate in Russia reached a rate of 5.8%. This is about 4.4 million people. Employment services recorded less than 1 million unemployed. This information was guided by the President of the country during his direct presentation of the report for the year in April 2015. In accordance with opinion polls, in February 2015, about 27% of the population noted a reduction in the number of employees in enterprises during the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015. According to the information provided by Rosstat, over the past decade, the unemployment rate in Russia has varied between 5.3% in 2014 and 8.2% in 2009, which many people remember as a crisis. In general, in the last year, in accordance with the figures, the situation has only improved.
Unemployment rate in Russia for January - April 2015
In accordance with the research conducted from January to April, the highest unemployment rate was recorded in the Republic of Ingushetia. The indicator reached a value of 29.9% already in April of this year. In the rest of the North Caucasian republics and in Kalmykia, in the Trans-Baikal Territory and in Sevastopol, in the territory of the Tyva Republic and in the Nenets Autonomous Region, unemployment reached 10%. Indicators within 3% were recorded only in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the central part of the country, the indicator is either lower or does not exceed the natural rate of unemployment in Russia (5.8%). In some regions, unemployment reaches a value of 6–8% of the total active population, with an average of 7%. Official statistics give no reason for panic.
Search query statistics
The dynamics of the unemployment rate in Russia is successfully tracked by the number of search queries with the word “vacancy”. Thus, in the period from March 2013 to April 2015, the number of requests increased by 94.2%. This was the maximum in the last two years. Formed a very illogical situation. Despite the systematic improvement in official figures, people have stepped up their job search. Doubt inspires the current situation. In March 2013, the official unemployment rate was only 5.7%, which corresponded to the number of requests on the Internet. Accordingly, the increase in unemployment in March 2015 caused an increase in the number of job seekers on the Internet by 1.94 times. If you transfer the number of requests with the word “vacancy” to a percentage rate, it should be equated to 11%. In fact, it was officially announced growth rate of only 0.1%. The phenomenon is easily explained by the fact that there is not only official, but also hidden unemployment in Russia. The number of those who are officially registered at work is increasing, but at the same time, it either works part-time or is not busy at all. Searching for vacancies on the Internet is one of the most popular destinations today. Even people who are threatened with dismissal resort to it, which also puts a certain imprint on the numbers.
Monitoring in the field of employment
In February 2015, representatives of the FOM conducted a general monitoring of the situation in the country. In accordance with the information provided, it was possible to derive the following statistics:
- The loss of work among relatives was noted by 31% of respondents.
- Not less than 27% of all participants in the monitoring stated about the reduction at their enterprises.
- 39% of respondents focused on the high probability of losing their job.
- At least 19% of research participants spoke of hidden unemployment within their companies.
If we compare the situation with the crisis of 2008, when the unemployment rate was incredibly high, today everything is more or less stable, which is confirmed by official data. At the same time, many respondents note a deterioration of the situation.
How was the situation in 2014?
The unemployment rate in Russia in 2014, many experts recall as a critical moment. According to Rosstat, at that time the number of economically unoccupied persons was equal to 151 thousand people. Against the background of the current economic situation, experts did not stop talking about a further deterioration in performance. The authorized representatives of Rosstat managed to calculate: the unemployment rate in Russia in 2014 in September was only 4.9%, while the figures for October were much worse, at the level of 5.1%. An analysis of the situation showed that the people who were involved in the private sector suffered the most from the situation. The forecast was made on the fact that in the coming year there will be a high level of unemployment in Russia, including black.
Unemployment during the crisis of 2008–2009 and 2014–2015
During the crisis of 2008–2009, the first information about the increase in unemployment was reported to the media in October 2008. The main wave covered the country only after 7-8 months, in the period from January to April 2009. Significant differences in performance were seen in the regional context. Information about the creation of new jobs, which was often announced at the time, was considered by experts to be not very encouraging. For example, 40 thousand jobs that could be created in the Far East, according to information provided by the UniSIS, practically did not change against the background of the fact that the official status of "unemployed" was assigned to 224.2 thousand people. Compared to the problems of 2008, the unemployment rate in Russia in 2015 has a completely different character. The growth rate is due to an increase in hidden unemployment, which makes it impossible for anyone to soberly and rationally assess the processes occurring in the country's economy. Positive social attitudes can be maintained due to the low official figures, which, according to most analysts and industry experts, are far from reality. The current situation has a negative impact on the welfare of the standard of living of the population.
What are the differences between the situation of 2008 and 2014
The unemployment rate in Russia 2014 is not growing officially, as it was in 2008. This is due to the different nature of management decisions, the introduction of new programs to combat unemployment and the growth of the hidden figure, which is virtually impossible to reflect in the reports of Rosstat. The problem lies in the time delay between the management decisions made and the period when they begin to produce the expected results. The complex of measures is based on professional retraining of personnel, which not only does not provide an immediate effect, but also does not provide momentary employment. The situation is aggravated by the fact that Ulyukayev, who holds the post of head of the Ministry of Economy, put forward a proposal to stop funding programs to combat unemployment due to the fact that the official unemployment rate in the Russian regions was much better than expected.
What will happen in 2015?
Amid a catastrophic fall in the price of oil in early 2015 (January-February) and with a parallel weakening of the ruble, economists talked about entering the state economy into recession. Answering the question about what level of unemployment in Russia will be in 2015, many focused on the inevitability of reductions due to the freezing of many planned and current projects, as well as in the event of the final closure of many companies. The domestic economic situation in the country did not help to expect general unemployment rates. If in 2009 it was possible to observe the value at the level of 8.3%, by the end of 2015 one should not expect a figure of more than 6.4% against the background of 5.5% in 2014. In comparison with other countries of the world, the course of events is not catastrophic. So, Spain for several years now can not cope with the figure of 25%, Greece - from 25.8%, and France and Austria - from 10%.
Official government statements
The Ministry of Economic Development of the country relies on the fact that the unemployment rate in Russia, whose statistics is provided from official sources, will rise to 6.4%. The number of unemployed can reach about 434 thousand people. The situation will also affect the level of wages, which are planned to be reduced by 9.6% by the end of 2015 (against 3.5% in 2008). This is due to the reduction in financial capacity of budgets. Poverty is expected to increase from 11% in 2014 to 12.4% in 2015. According to forecasts of Igor Nikolayev, who holds the post of director of the FBK strategic analysis department, if by the end of 2015 the indicator stops at a value of 6.4%, then in 2016-2017 it will be possible to observe a sharp increase. The forecast of the representatives of the HSE Development Center says that such sectors as trade and construction, services and tourism will suffer the most from the crisis. Hard will have the representatives of the financial sector. Under the risk of dismissal fall the most unskilled office workers. We focus on the fact that all forecasts remain only forecasts and assumptions, it will be possible to consider the situation in fact in a certain time interval and on the basis of both official and unofficial data.