Revenue forecasting method. Budget planning


The method of forecasting revenues to the budget of a settlement is implemented in the context of specific types of deductions, in relation to which the administration is vested with the powers of the main manager of funds. It is used to analyze the amount that is expected to be received in the next financial period from the public, organizations and institutions. The administration decides on the approval of revenue forecasting techniques.


Calculation methods

Budget planning is carried out by:

  1. Direct calculation This method is based on the direct use of estimated indicators (value and volume), interest rates and other values ​​that determine the value of the expected amounts.
  2. Averaging This method of forecasting revenues is implemented on the basis of calculating the average amount of deductions for a period of at least 3 years or for the entire period of replenishment of the treasury of the MoD with the appropriate types of deductions if it does not exceed three years.

The administration may provide other methods of calculation.

Payment categories

The developed method of forecasting revenues to the budget is used to calculate the expected:

  1. The amounts deducted from the lease of material values ​​transferred to the territorial management bodies and institutions created by them, in the operational management. The exception is the property of autonomous and municipal budgetary organizations.
  2. Rent, funds from the implementation of the rights to conclude agreements on the transfer to use of land, which is the property of the administrative-territorial units belonging to the MO. The exceptions are the plots of autonomous and municipal budgetary structures.
  3. Other amounts deducted from the use of material values, which are the property of the administrative-territorial units included in the MO. The exception is the property of municipal autonomous and budgetary institutions, unitary, state-owned, including enterprises.

For the analysis of the expected amount of deductions of these amounts, the method of income forecasting is used, based on the direct and average methods of calculation.


The method of forecasting income includes calculating the amounts that may be transferred by users of land in the coming financial year. To do this, use the following equation:

A = C x P, in which:

  • rent - A;
  • market value of the plot - С;
  • refinancing rate of the Central Bank - R.


The price of the plot is determined on the basis of an estimate made no more than six months before the signing of the rental agreement. The amount, which is expected to be deducted, for the use of property owned as well as operational management is calculated by the formula:

AI = (AItg + Su + Cc) x K, in which:

  • the amount of payment for the rental of property expected to be credited in the next year - AI;
  • estimated amount in the current period - Aitg;
  • the size of the reduction of deductions due to the reduction of the space provided for use in the next year, Cc;
  • the amount of the increase in receipts for property in connection with the expected increase in objects leased in the forthcoming period - Su;
  • the expected deflator coefficient, which is applied to the rate of payment for the use of material values ​​or to their estimated value in the coming year - K.

To calculate the aggregate amount of these amounts in the upcoming period, the revenue forecasting method provides the following equation:

AZI (p) = (AZI (t) + AZI (t-1) + AZI (t-2)) / 3, in which:

  • rent for property and land - AZI (p);
  • AZI (t) … AZI (t-1) is the actual (estimated) value of annual sums for the 3 years preceding the future.


Amounts from the sale of material values

The method of revenue forecasting provides the following formula for calculation:

RI = PL x St, in which:

  • the amount of the sale - RI;
  • the average cost of 1 square. m. of an immovable object, determined according to the results of the auction organized in the period preceding the settlement, - St;
  • the area of ​​buildings, buildings, premises to be sold in the next year - PL.

The calculation of the amounts of these amounts for the planning period is performed using the following equation:

RI (p) = (RI (t) + RI (t-1) + RI (t-2)) / 3, in which:

  • RI (t) … RI (t-2) - estimated (actual) value of annual deductions for 3 years preceding the next one.


Variable amounts

The averaged method for predicting non-tax revenues is used when calculating the expected deductions made unsystematically. The initial data are the average annual volumes of actual amounts received over the previous three years. These figures are taken from the reports on the execution of budget items (f. 0503127). The following categories are considered as non-permanent:

  1. State fees for the implementation of notarial actions by employees of local government structures who have the appropriate authority, in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation.
  2. From the disposal and sale of confiscated and other material values, turned into incomes of settlements.
  3. State fees for the granting by local authorities of a special permit for movement on the roads of vehicles transporting heavy / oversized, dangerous goods.
  4. Charged by local authorities for the performance of individual functions.
  5. From monetary penalties for violations of financial laws.
  6. From compensation for damage resulting from improper or improper use of funds by local administrations.
  7. From levying fines for violations of the regulations of the Russian Federation on the contract system in the field of procurement of services, products, works for the provision of municipal and state forces.



The method of forecasting non-tax revenues provides the following method of calculation:

P = (P (m) + P (m-1) + P (m-2) + P (m-3)) / 4, where

  • P (m) … P (m-3) - the actual value of the sums received for 3 reporting periods;
  • P (m) - the estimated amount of funds in the current year.

The latter figure is calculated by the formula:

P (m) = (Ro (m) / k) * 12, in which:

  • Ro (m) - the actual value of the sums received for the completed period in the current year;
  • K - the number of months of the reporting period ended in tech. year

The determination of the cumulative amount of the above amounts for the forthcoming period is made using the following equation:

P (p) = (P (t) + P (t-1) + P (t-2)) / 3, in which:

  • P (t) … P (t-2) - estimated (actual) value of annual sums received during the three years preceding the predicted one.


The volumes of such amounts coming from the regional budget are projected in accordance with the indicators established in the legislative acts of the subject or regulatory documents of the authorities. The amount of gratuitous funds from the district fund, expected to be credited, is calculated from the values ​​stipulated in the decision on the composition of financial items for the forthcoming period.



Forecasting budget revenues is of particular importance for a rural settlement. Using various calculation options, the administration can analyze the amount of funds that may be available to it. This, in turn, provides cost planning for the upcoming periods. The calculation of the expected amounts of funds is preceded by an analysis of the amounts previously received. In accordance with the results of the assessment, the administration is able to identify promising areas for spending finances, using property that is the property of an administrative-territorial unit, in the operational management of institutions and enterprises. Properly used methods of analysis and calculation can achieve greater independence from regional and municipal subsidies.

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